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January 2025 Industry Update: Truckload Capacity Outlook
The carrier population declined significantly in December despite net revocations and new authorities showing signs of stabilizing.
Key Points
- Total net revocations, a measure of total authority revocations minus reinstatements, rose sharply in December by over 1,000 carriers, increasing from 4,528 total revocations in November to 5,565 in December, according to FTR’s preliminary analysis of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) data.
- The number of newly authorized for-hire trucking companies fell by 581 carriers in December, dropping from 4,297 new carriers in November to 3,716 carriers in December, per FTR’s reporting.
- Preliminary North American Class 8 Orders ranged from 31,900 units as reported by FTR to 36,500 units per ACT Research with both outlets reporting strong YoY growth of roughly 23% and 39% respectively.
Summary
Following moderate declines in October (-12) and November (-231), the net decrease in the for-hire carrier population accelerated sharply in December with a reduction of 1,849 carriers. This marked the third-largest monthly decline in 2024, trailing only January and April. A significant driver of December’s decrease was an uptick in net revocations, as the FMCSA revoked more than 1,000 additional authorities compared to November. Despite this surge, total net revocations for Q4 amounted to just over 15,000 carriers, representing the lowest quarterly total since Q1 2022, according to FTR. On an annual basis, total revocations for 2024 reached 67,421 carriers, a decline of approximately 22% compared to 2023 but 64% higher than 2019 levels.
New authorities also contributed to the contraction in the carrier population. Newly authorized for-hire trucking firms decreased by over 580 carriers in December compared to November. The FMCSA processed 3,716 new authorities in December, the lowest monthly figure since May 2020, narrowly surpassing the 3,741 new authorities registered in December 2023. This slowdown brought the total new authorities for Q4 to 12,900 carriers, the lowest quarterly figure since Q2 2020.
Meanwhile, equipment sales in December demonstrated relative strength, as reported by both FTR and ACT Research. While both sources noted slightly weaker order volumes compared to November, YoY comparisons exceeded seasonal expectations. According to FTR, December’s preliminary estimate surpassed the 7-year average of 29,716 net orders for the month, bringing cumulative net orders for the 2025 order season (spanning September through December 2024) to a level 6% higher YoY. This indicates positive momentum heading into the new year, despite ongoing challenges in the freight market.
Why It Matters:
While the surge in net revocations may appear consistent with the ongoing challenges in truckload conditions, December’s results are likely an outlier driven by calendar distortion. As noted in prior updates, the FMCSA processes the majority of authority revocations on Mondays, and December had five Mondays. Broadening the perspective, both quarterly and annual data suggest that revocations are stabilizing, although they remain significantly above pre-pandemic norms.
In contrast, new entries into the market are closer to pre-pandemic levels, standing at 28% above 2019 figures compared to a 64% increase for net revocations. This disparity highlights the uneven progress toward normalization within the for-hire trucking sector.
As we move into 2025, the slowing rate of contraction in the for-hire sector introduces greater uncertainty regarding the timeline for a recovery in demand and the broader market’s rebalancing. According to FTR, the freight market currently has approximately 95,000 more for-hire firms with active authority than in February 2020—a roughly 35% increase. Meanwhile, the 12-month sentiment for Transportation Capacity, as reported in the Logistics Managers’ Index, is projected to be 50%, indicating expectations of stable capacity over the next year.
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