April 2025 Industry Update

Executive Summary

In March, evolving market fundamentals across both the transportation sector and the broader economy were significantly influenced—and in many cases overshadowed—by the ongoing shifts in global trade policy. While there were some encouraging developments, these were largely offset by emerging headwinds and heightened uncertainty surrounding the overall economic outlook.

Macroeconomic indicators presented a notable divergence. Backward-looking “hard” data largely pointed to continued resilience, whereas forward-looking “soft” data conveyed growing concern. On the hard data front, housing starts rebounded in February following a weak January and industrial production showed robust growth. The labor market continued to surpass expectations, with both the household and establishment surveys reporting gains. Total nonfarm employment increased by 228,000 in March, outpacing consensus forecasts as well as January and February figures, though the unemployment rate edged up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%.

In contrast, soft data painted a more cautious picture. A key headline in March was the steep decline in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell 12% MoM and is projected to decline an additional 11% MoM in the preliminary April estimate. The index now stands 34% below its April 2024 level and has declined 31% from its December peak, marking its lowest point since June 2022. Additional signs of weakness included a return to contraction in domestic manufacturing, softening Q1 GDP estimates, and a rise in recession forecasts from several global financial institutions.

Within the transportation industry, underlying market signals remained mixed, reflecting both ongoing challenges and isolated areas of strength. Overall, market fundamentals weakened in March, though certain sectors demonstrated relative resilience. Truckload conditions deteriorated further, as excess capacity continued to absorb increased volumes driven by pre-tariff inventory pull-forwards, placing downward pressure on rates across most major modes. Conversely, the flatbed segment experienced volume and rate growth, buoyed by increased cross-border shipments of industrial commodities in anticipation of pending tariffs.

Rail activity, including both intermodal and carload traffic, trended higher during the month, as the sector captured additional market share. However, these gains were partially offset by softer pricing, as rail operators remained competitive with the underperforming truckload market. Meanwhile, the maritime sector posted overall gains. According to Descartes’ April 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. container imports totaled 2,380,674 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in March, representing a 6.3% increase from February and an 11% YoY rise. While the month-over-month growth benefited from additional business days in March, it came despite a 12.6% MoM decline in imports from China amid intensifying trade tensions. This decline shifted market dynamics, as East and Gulf Coast ports surpassed West Coast ports in market share for the first time in nine months. Simultaneously, there were notable YoY increases in import volumes from countries such as Germany (+39.6%), Thailand (+35.7%) and Japan (+33.4%).

Industry Overview

March Key Figures (YoY)

Truck Data Points	YoY% Change
DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC)	-0.9 q
Fuel Prices	-10.9 q
ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders	-8.3 q
ATA NSA Truck Tonnage*	0.6 p
Cass Freight Index	1.5 p
Cass Freight Shipments	-5.3 q
Cass Freight Expenditures	-2.0 q

*Report released on 3/18/2025

April 2025 Industry Update

Executive Summary

Industry Overview

March Key Figures (YoY)

Main Takeaways

Economy

Truckload Rates

Truckload Demand

Truckload Supply

Truckload Capacity Outlook

Fuel Prices

Dry Van

Reefer

Flatbed

Intermodal

Further Reading

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