Executive Summary
Though only a month in, the fourth quarter has already presented substantial volatility, with major disruptions in October resulting in mixed outcomes across both the transportation industry and the broader economy.
For the economy, conditions showed overall improvement in October, as the preliminary estimate for Q3 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflected a solid 2.8% quarterly growth on a seasonally adjusted basis. This growth was largely driven by strong consumer spending in both goods and services, along with significant increases in government spending and fixed investment. Exports also registered notable gains; however, international trade remained a net drag on GDP due to strong import activity, marking the largest increase since Q1 2022. Despite these positive economic indicators, job growth in October slowed, with only 12,000 jobs added MoM, marking the weakest growth in nearly four years. This data, affected by the Boeing strike and likely impacted by recent hurricanes, still saw unemployment remain low. Combined with robust GDP data, these factors led the Federal Reserve to cut its target funds rate for the second time this year.
In the transportation industry, truckload conditions turned modestly positive amidst continued excess capacity that has slowed recovery. Although seasonal volumes remained soft in October, rate pressure increased due to capacity disruptions caused by consecutive hurricanes and the ILA port strike. Rail carriers experienced strong volumes fueled by consumer spending as retailers moved to restock inventories ahead of the holiday season. In the maritime sector, October imports reached 2,494,635 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), down 1% MoM from September but still elevated by 8.1% compared to October 2023 and 20.5% higher than October 2019.
While the 2024 election has dominated recent headlines, most of this report was completed before results were confirmed. As we now know, President Trump has won the election and will return to the White House in January for a second term. Although he has campaigned on various policies with potential implications for the economy and the transportation sector, considerable uncertainty remains regarding what policies will actually be enacted. Our focus remains on reporting the latest data and its implications for the months ahead.
Industry Overview: October Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | -3.4 q |
| Fuel Prices | -20.4 q |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | -4.1 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | -0.8 q |
| Cass Freight Index** | -3.5 q |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -5.2 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | -6.6 q |
*Report released on 10/22/2024
**Report released on 10/14/2024
Main Takeaways
Economy
Manufacturing activity remained sluggish in October as the ISM® Manufacturing PMI® remained in contraction, driven by weaker new orders and reduced production. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
Average spot rates rose in October and outpaced smaller gains in the contract market, dropping the contract-to-spot rate spread back within the pre-pandemic average range. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
Contract volumes were down slightly in October but in-line with seasonal expectations, while spot market activity surged in the wake of Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
Impacts from the hurricanes and the East Coast port strike pushed rejection rates to their highest levels this year outside of the Fourth of July holiday. Continue reading...
Truckload Capacity Outlook
The for-hire carrier population remained virtually unchanged in October as an increase in new entrants nearly offset declines in net revocations. Continue reading...
Fuel
The average benchmark price of diesel rose slightly in October amidst rising tensions in the Middle East. Continue reading...
Dry Van
Average dry van rates spiked in October after three months of declines as volumes surged. Continue reading...
Reefer
Average reefer rates increased modestly in October despite a significant uptick in volumes. Continue reading...
Flatbed
Flatbed volumes rose for the second consecutive month in October pushing average rates higher. Continue reading...
Intermodal
Intermodal volumes remained robust in October despite weakening carload traffic, while rates trended negatively. Continue reading...
Further Reading
- Transport Topics: Refrigerated Rates’ Near-Term Upside Likely Limited: FTR
- Logistics Management: U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index highlights continued challenges for freight transportation market
- Commercial Carrier Journal: Report forecasts moderate growth in 2025, amid holiday risks and shifts in retail strategies