December 2024 Industry Update

Executive Summary

After a year marked by ambiguity and uncertainty in the broader economy and transportation sector, the resiliency and stability observed in November provided a welcome sense of relief. While the outlook for the upcoming year and the new administration remains mixed, there is a growing sense of optimism for a return to balance in both areas.

Positive economic indicators were driven by sustained consumer spending and a rebound in the labor market. Following a weak October report, which was revised upward by 36,000 jobs, November saw nonfarm payrolls increase by 227,000 jobs, although the unemployment rate edged slightly higher to 4.2%. The second estimate of Q3 GDP growth remained consistent with the preliminary figure of 2.8%, following the robust 3.0% growth recorded in Q2. Economic growth was primarily supported by consumer spending, alongside upward revisions to business and government investment.

Export estimates were also adjusted higher, although imports outpaced them, leaving international trade as the largest drag on GDP growth followed by fixed residential investment. Inflation appears to have stabilized at relatively low levels, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index rising 2.3% year-over-year in October, aligning with the Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target of approximately 2%. This trend has reinforced expectations of an additional 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, which would bring the target funds rate to 4.25%-4.50% in December.

The transportation industry also exhibited mostly positive signals in November. The intermodal and maritime sectors demonstrated resilience, while truckload conditions remained neutral. Although the traditional retail peak season began sluggishly, ongoing capacity attrition contributed to increased volatility from seasonal effects and fueled speculation that the market is nearing equilibrium. Truckload volumes experienced some softness in November; however, intermodal volumes reached new highs, driven by robust consumer demand despite continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which weighed on overall carload performance. Meanwhile, the maritime sector remained active, with November imports totaling 2,368,758 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), representing a 12.8% increase compared to 2023 and a 24.6% rise from pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Industry Overview: November Key Figures (YoY)

Truck Data Points	YoY% Change
DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC)	-2.3 q
Fuel Prices	-17.2 q
ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders	-10.9 q
ATA NSA Truck Tonnage*	1.7 p
Cass Freight Index**	-1.1 q
Cass Freight Shipments	-0.7 q
Cass Freight Expenditures	-3.8 q

*Report released on 11/19/2024

December 2024 Industry Update

Executive Summary

Industry Overview: November Key Figures (YoY)

Main Takeaways

Economy

Truckload Rates

Truckload Demand

Truckload Supply

Truckload Capacity Outlook

Fuel

Dry Van

Reefer

Flatbed

Intermodal

Further Reading

Contact Us